Forecasting What May Be Ahead for Home Loan Rates

Fairfax, VA – The good news–despite what the Mayan calendar may say–is that the world probably won’t be coming to an end in 2012. But like 2011, this coming year may bring some significant challenges here in the US and around the world. Read on to learn more about what could be ahead for home loan rates.

First, let’s take a minute to recap 2011. While home loan rates finished the year at historically low levels, the housing market did not see a major improvement in the second half of the year as some experts expected. The labor market did make some modest improvements, but it is still persistently weak and this is one area of the economy in particular that we need to see consistent improvement in to help our long-term economic outlook.

Also weighing on consumer confidence and thus the economy in 2011 was the first downgrade of US Debt in history, thanks in part to our very divisive government body. Finally, the worsening and spreading debt crisis in Europe capped a year filled with financial and political uncertainty. The situation in Europe is the perfect place to begin a 2012 outlook.

Eurozone Debt Crisis
What may happen with the US economy and home loan rates in 2012–not to mention with inflation, the housing market, the job market, and even the Presidential election–may be dramatically influenced by how the Eurozone handles their debt crisis. In the simplest of terms, the issue is that like much of the developed economies around the world, Europe has way too much debt. And a lot of this debt sits on the books of the banking sector throughout the Eurozone.

In good economic times, banks could potentially “grow” their way out of their recapitalization problem by doing a lot of business and writing a bunch of loans. But that is not likely to happen with the Eurozone slipping into a recession in the first half of 2012.

Ultimately, Europe needs to provide a large financial backstop for their banks and sovereign debt in order to fix their problems longer-term. And this is something that Germany, who holds the cards in this negotiation, strongly opposes. Germany prefers to have each country shore up their own individual finances, act responsibly, and pay down their debt. Yet, Greece, Italy and other highly indebted countries have struggled to invoke tough austerity measures that would help them do so.

The situation in Europe is definitely a wild card headed into 2012. The bottom line is that as long as the uncertainty continues, the US Dollar and US Bonds should benefit, as investors will see our Bonds (including Mortgage Bonds, upon which home loan rates are based) as a safe haven for their money. This could help keep our home loan rates relatively low in 2012.

Inflation
One factor that we can’t ignore when it comes to home loan rates is inflation. Why? Inflation is the arch enemy of Bonds and home loan rates, because if inflation rises, investors in Bonds demand a higher yield to offset the lost buying power inflation imposes on a fixed payment. And as home loan rates are tied to Mortgage Bonds, this would mean home loan rates move higher. That’s why sometimes even hints or whispers that inflation is on the rise causes Bonds and home loan rates to worsen.

So what’s ahead for inflation in 2012? In the Fed’s Policy Statement from the December 13, 2011 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the Fed stated that inflation is moderating…which would be good news for home loan rates. However, it’s important to note that core consumer level inflation actually inched higher in 2011.

Last year, consumer inflation and the expectation of inflation rose as the Fed embarked on a second round of Quantitative Easing (QE2) in the fall of 2010, whereby they bought Mortgage Bonds to help boost the economy and the housing market. If inflation remains at current levels or pulls back a little, the Fed may just do another round of QE3 in the spring. Also paving the way for another round of QE is the change of guard at the Fed. Several hawkish (i.e., tough on inflation) voting members are being replaced by more dovish (i.e., softer on inflation) voting members in 2012.

The bottom line is that if the Fed does another round of QE, this could cause inflation to rise. And if inflation does rise in 2012, it could have a negative impact on home loan rates. However, if the uncertainty out of Europe continues to lead to a safe haven trade in our Bond markets–and remember, this helps Mortgage Bonds and therefore home loan rates–this could essentially balance out the negative impact inflation usually has on Bonds and home loan rates. Only time will tell whether inflation or the events in Europe have a bigger impact on the markets and home loan rates.

The Big Picture
In many ways, 2012 may feel a lot like 2011. Inflation and events in Europe will continue to play a big part in the direction home loan rates move in 2012. What’s more, history has shown that Bonds move higher (which means home loan rates move lower) in anticipation of QE, but then selloff once the official announcement is made…think “buy on the rumor and sell on the news.”

If that does happen, the first half of 2012 could be an especially great time to purchase or refinance a home. But even if the Fed does not move forward with QE3, we begin 2012 with home loan rates near historic lows, which already makes this year a great time to purchase or refinance a home. If you have any questions about how you can benefit from this situation, give me a call at
703-830-9808 or email me at jeff@lendingsolutions.net

Effective Friday, November 18, FHA has raised loan limits to $729,750.

Fairfax, VA – You can check individual counties for limits using this link:

 FHA Loan Limits

Fannie & Freddie’s loan limits remain at $625,500!

FHA requires 3.5% down with a higher loan limit.

Conventional loans, 5% down with a lower loan limit.

Does this make sense to you?  I guess nothing makes sense these days but we think that Fannie and Freddie may very likely follow FHA.  Waiting for the President to sign.

 The new FHA limits are effective through 2013.

Fairfax, VA

CPI, PPI, PCE…sounds like a nice bowl of alphabet soup. But did you know that what lies behind these letters impacts not only YOU every single day…it also bears a very heavy influence on the direction of home loan rates? So pull up a chair, grab a spoon, and let’s dig in to learn more.

First, let’s break down what these letters mean. CPI stands for the “Consumer Price Index,” and just like it sounds, it is a measure of prices that consumers are paying for goods and services here in the United States. PPI stands for the “Producer Price Index,” which is a measure of the prices that manufacturers and producers are paying to create these goods and services. PCE stands for “Personal Consumption Expenditures,” which is another measure of how much we as consumers are paying for all the items we purchase.

Each of these readings is very different–but they all serve to measure inflation, which is the relative increase in the prices for goods and services…or a decline in the purchasing price of a dollar.

Consumer Price Index
CPI was first initiated during World War I. This was a time when prices were increasing very rapidly, so employers needed to develop a system to adjust wages along with the increasing cost of living associated with higher costs of goods and services. The Bureau of Labor Statistics determined a basic “basket of goods” that an average person might buy on a regular basis, and then began monitoring the prices of items in this basket on a monthly basis, for cities across the US. As spending habits changed over the years, the basket of goods and areas surveyed changed–but the basic philosophy has remained the same.

What does an average CPI “basket” look like? Here’s a sample. How does it compare with your monthly shopping cart?

Food and Beverages (breakfast cereal, milk, coffee, chicken, wine, full service meals, snacks)
Housing (rent of primary residence, owners’ equivalent rent, fuel oil, bedroom furniture)
Apparel (men’s shirts and sweaters, women’s dresses, jewelry)
Transportation (new vehicles, airline fares, gasoline, motor vehicle insurance)
Medical Care (prescription drugs and medical supplies, physicians’ services, eyeglasses and eye care, hospital services)
Recreation (televisions, toys, pets and pet products, sports equipment, admissions)
Education and Communication (college tuition, postage, telephone services, computer software and accessories)
Other Goods and Services (tobacco and smoking products, haircuts and other personal services, funeral expenses)
So how is this data collected? Every month, researchers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics visit or call thousands of stores and offices to obtain pricing information, ultimately tracking and pricing about 80,000 items per month. The numbers are reported on a monthly basis, using the time period for the years 1982-1984 as a baseline, assigning the basket a level of 100. So if the new pricing levels come in at 189, you could make the connection that something that cost $100 in 1982-1984 might now cost $189. On a monthly basis, however, what is reported is the percentage increase (or decrease) from the prior month, and then also the percentage change from last year.

For an interesting – and somewhat sobering – look at how the buying power of your dollar has changed over the years, try out this inflation calculator from the Bureau of Labor Statistics:

Producer Price Index
The Producer Price Index (PPI) is somewhat different than the Consumer Price Index (CPI), as it measures the costs that a producer or wholesaler pays for the items they need to create goods and services. This can often give a foreshadowing of potential increases to consumer prices…but not always. In some cases, the producer is unable to pass along their increased costs, and simply has to take a lower profit margin on the item in question. Similarly to CPI, the data for PPI is released in a percentage format, indicating the increase or decrease in prices paid by the producer relative to last month and also last year.

It’s fascinating to watch these particular economic reports get released each month, as the Producer Price Index is always released just a few days before the Consumer Price Index, and it’s always a subject of much speculation to see if the increases in producer costs have been passed on to consumers…or not.

Personal Consumption Expenditures
PCE is somewhat similar to CPI, as it measures price changes in consumer goods and services. But there is one primary difference. Remember the “basket of goods” described in the CPI? PCE takes a slightly different look at this basket, as it presumes that consumers are smart enough not to keep buying a particular item that has gone up in price compared to something else similar.

For example, if oranges become expensive due to a crop freeze, a savvy consumer might decide to buy a different kind of fruit or juice in the meantime. Where CPI leaves that expensive item in their fixed basket of goods, PCE takes smart shopping into consideration. This is why many people speculate that the Federal Reserve actually places more weight on PCE, as it may more accurately depict a consumer’s true behavior and spending habits.

The Impact on Home Loan Rates
Imagine for a moment that you are going to lend your very own money to someone to buy a house. So you go through all the paces to determine this person is a good credit risk, you do the loan, and you start receiving $1,500 per month as your regular payment. You then of course take that $1,500 and start loading up your shopping cart with the goods and services you need on a monthly basis…food, clothing, medicine, gas, etc.

But over time, you notice something happening. Every month, you are getting slightly less in your cart than you did the month before, for that same $1,500 you are spending. Why? Because costs are on the rise–that’s inflation.

Now imagine that you are once again going to lend your very own money to another person to buy a house. You go through all the paces once again, and determine that the person is a good credit risk. You want the same shopping cart full of “stuff” that you got last time in return for doing the loan, but this time you realize that you can no longer get that same cart full with $1,500. Due to inflation, you now need $1,700 to buy those same goods and services.

So what does this mean for the interest rate you will charge this second person? It means you will need to charge a higher interest rate to compensate you for the ongoing impact of inflation. And that is why home loan rates change when there is a fear of inflation in the air, as lenders need to offset the impact of inflation over the years, which will erode the value of the dollars they are receiving over time. And that’s also why it makes sense to work with a smart home loan professional who can be watching these types of indicators and keeping you informed and advised.

Please call me if you have any questions, or if you are look to refinance or if you are purchasing a new home.

Bankruptcy – FHA will allow origination of an FHA insured loan after your bankruptcy has been discharged for two years with a Chapter 7 Bankruptcy.

A Chapter 13 bankruptcy must discharged for at least one year before you can apply for an FHA insured loan.

Foreclosure - You need to wait three years to apply for an FHA insured loan after the sale/deed transfer date.

Short Sale / Notice of Default – You need to wait three years to apply for an FHA insured loan after the sale date of your foreclosure. As of right now, FHA treats a short sale and a foreclosure the same.

New Credit must be re-established your score should be in the 640 range, the higher the score the better.

2011 VA Waiting Guidelines

Bankruptcy - You need to wait two years from your bankruptcy discharge to apply for a VA guaranteed loan. 
Foreclosure - You need to wait two years from your foreclosure before you may apply for a VA guaranteed loan. 

Short Sale - If the short sale loan was a conventional loan you may apply for a VA guaranteed loan two years. If the short sale loan was a VA loan then restrictions apply. If the VA lost money on the short sale, this loss will most likely have to be cured before a new VA loan will be guaranteed.

New Credit must be re-established your score should be in the 620 range, the higher the score the better.2011 Conventional Waiting Guidelines (Fannie Mae)

Bankruptcy – For a Conventional Fannie Mae / Freddie Mac loan, you currently must wait four years from your bankruptcy discharge date.

Foreclosure - Conventional loans, Fannie Mae / Freddie Mac loans require seven years after the sale date of your foreclosure.  Additional qualifying requirements may apply,

Short Sale / Notice of Default – Currently treated the same as a foreclosure with a waiting time of seven years before you can buy again using a Fannie Mae conventional home loan.

New Credit must be re-established your score should be in the 660 range, the higher the score the better. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac currently like scores over 740 for all of their loan products.Fannie Mae has reduced waiting periods in cases of extenuating circumstances – The death of a primary wage earner seems to be the only one I have been able to identify up to this point.

Fairfax, VA – When was the last government shutdown? 1995 was the year. What happened? It was very painful to get through, but no one panicked. And we shouldn’t panic this time. I can assure you 1st Commonwealth Bank of Virginia has prepared all of the loans in our pipeline and we preparing for a worst case scenario, so the disruption will be minimal. If a shutdown would occur, these would be the top six areas that can affect us during a government shutdown:  

FHA Case Numbers: For each FHA loan, we are required to order a FHA case number.
This number is generated before an appraisal can even be ordered. With a shutdown, we may not be able to order case numbers. Because of this, it is critical to let us know if there is a contract executed on any loan, so that our office can go ahead and order a case number without risking the loan being on hold during a shutdown. Note: with the new FHA guidelines, a contract must be executed before a case number can be ordered.

(The ability to close FHA loans is questionable, depending if HUD keeps its website running to obtain FHA case numbers and CAIVRS (During the November 1995 shutdown, case numbers could not be obtained, but this was prior to the internet and was a manual process). The shutdown in 1995 mainly caused a delay rather than a drop in FHA loan origination, but if lenders decide to stop accepting FHA applications, it could be a problem. I think we will see delays but not a complete shutdown of the FHA.)
 
4506 IRS Transcripts: Each loan requires the verification of at least one Federal tax return by the IRS to verify the financial numbers that each customer presents us on their tax returns. During a shutdown, this process would be delayed as the IRS wouldn’t be at work to verify the transcripts. (This might be a minimal delay, since the internet / phone fax is used to order tax transcripts.)

Verifying Employment (VOE) of a Government Employee: We are required to verify the employment of each customer. If the customer is a federal government employee, we might not be unable to verify his or her employment during a shutdown. (Again some VOE’s are ordered via the internet, we are not sure if there would be a delay in receiving VOE’s)

FEMA: Homes in a Flood Zone: Homes that are determined to be in a flood zone would not be able to close as flood insurance could not be obtained.

USDA: During a shutdown, the USDA office would be closed because they have government underwriters that insure behind the lender.  With a shutdown, we would see delays with all USDA loans.

VA: Like the FHA, the disruption is possible — but not absolute — during a shutdown. This would all depend on if they continued to allow their website to function. A disruption would cause delays in VA appraisals and the issuing of certificates of eligibility.  If the website was closed during a shutdown, we would see delays in all VA loans.

Fairfax, VA – When the property in question is an FHA flip. Seller has been on title for less than 90 days.

If the sales price is 20% or more above seller’s acquisition cost and the increase in value is due to improvements/renovation to the property: 

1. The appraiser is required to verify the repairs or work to the property in order to substantiate the increase in value.
 
2. The seller must supply a list of improvements made to the property and the appraiser adds the list to the appraisal along with comments to justify the increase.

3. Before and after pictures are welcome.

4. Although not required on FHA flips, most lenders will automatically order a second appraisal to help justify the value.

If the appraiser cannot warrant that legitimate work was done to the property to substantiate the increase in value:

1. Then a second appraisal will be required.
  
2. This part could cause issues: The lower of the two appraisals will be used for the appraised value.

3.  A second appraisal will be required.

If the increase in value is not due to any significant improvements:

1. The appraiser will be required to provide explanations for the increase in
property value.

2. The appraiser must provide sales comparables to support that value increase since the prior title transfer.

3. OR, if the appraiser cannot justify the increase in value, a second appraisal will be required.

4. The lower of the two appraisal values will be used for the appraised value.

Fairfax, Virginia: Last month, the world watched in horror as another tsunami brought immense devastation, this time to Japan. In light of the tragic earthquake and subsequent tsunami, I wanted to discuss a topic that’s important to all homeowners: homeowners insurance.

Let’s start with some important questions:

• Do you know what a typical homeowner’s insurance policy covers?
• If you’re currently a homeowner, do you know what your policy does, or more importantly, does not cover?
• Can you afford a higher deductible?

A study released by the National Association of Insurance Commissioners pointed out that typical  Fairfax Virginia property and liability policies do not cover home damage from floods, earthquakes, water line breaks, termites, mold, and several other perils, large and small.

Hurricane Katrina taught us hard lessons about home insurance. One unbelievable story was the loss of home equity experienced by Senator Trent Lott. The Senator’s long time insurance company did not cover his home after it was completely destroyed by Katrina.

The reason?

With hurricane insurance you typically have coverage from high winds, but not water damage. The water surge brought onshore by Katrina is what destroyed his home.

Homeowners need to be properly protected. Plan for the worst, hope for the best is prudent advice here. Mortgages and home equity are a big part of every homeowner’s financial plan and proactive planning is essential!

Going with a higher deductible on your Fairfax, Virginia home increases your out of pocket expense, but it can save you money in the long run through lower yearly permiums.  Insurance companies track claims against a home AND the home owner. Some companies might not renew a policy if too many claims are filed over a certain period of time. Check your budget and if possible increase your deductible and lower your yearly premium.

If you want to discuss your personal situation, please contact me. Don’t wait until after a tragedy happens to learn exactly what type of coverage you have. Then, it may be too late to protect yourself, your home, and your financial future.

What More Quantitative Easing Could Mean

Fairfax, VA – Historic, low home loan rates have been about the only thing stable in the economy these days. This low level mark breeds complacency, especially with the buzz in the air that rates may go even lower. But the question hangs in the air like humidity on a southern summer day – will rates go lower? And if there is a chance, should you wait and see or move forward now?

More Quantitative Easing
The buzz that began earlier this fall stemmed from talk coming out of the Federal Reserve that they were considering another round of Quantitative Easing in an effort to stimulate the sluggish economy.

What is Quantitative Easing? Here is what Wikipedia says:

The term quantitative easing (QE) describes a form of monetary policy used by central banks to increase the supply of money in an economy when the bank interest rate, discount rate and/or interbank interest rate are either at, or close to, zero.

“Quantitative” refers to the fact that a specific quantity of money is being created; “easing” refers to reducing the pressure on banks.

During the first round of quantitative easing, implemented during the credit crisis, the Federal Reserve bought Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) which helped drive home loan rates lower. Lower rates resulted from these purchases because of supply and demand. When there is more demand, prices move higher and yields (interest rates), which move inversely to prices, move lower.

The Federal Reserve announced their new bond-buying program at their monetary-policy meeting on November 3 and they will be purchasing $600 billion in Treasuries through June 2011. This second round has been dubbed by the media as QE2.

Here’s the Difference
With the new program, the Federal Reserve will only be purchasing Treasuries. Both Treasuries and MBS are bonds and compete for the same investment dollar. There is a natural spread between Treasuries and MBS. If the yield of Treasuries goes down because the Federal Reserve is buying $4 billion to $5 billion in Treasuries per day, it would likely help MBS move down in yield (interest rates) and up in price as well to remain competitive. This natural spread is the reason many anticipate mortgage rates improving.

Another camp speculates that MBS may get disappointed by QE2, like a jealous suitor, and sell off. A sell off would mean price deterioration, resulting in higher yields (interest rates). An old-time trader’s saying goes something like this, “Buy on the rumor and sell on the news.” Since all this QE2 talk began, the bond market has (for the most part) had a small party. Could this be the “buy on the rumor” behavior? If so, then that would take us down the path of thinking that “sell on the news” will follow.

But How Low Can They Go?
Assuming the market responds favorably and MBS improve, it is probably unlikely that rates will move significantly lower than they are today. For lenders to be able to offer a mortgage rate around 3.625% to 3.75%, it would require significant trading by Wall Street investors in the 3.0% coupon. This coupon has seen very little activity.

In addition, lenders have been slammed with refinance volume and are running at, or over, capacity. Also, processes have slowed due to new government guidelines and lenders increased attention to compliance. With processes moving slower, lenders are requiring longer lock periods which impact interest rate pricing. They may look to further manage capacity by regulating their volume through the interest rate offered.

“Wait and See” is full of risk. If MBS improve, and if lenders pass on the price improvements to the borrower, it is highly likely the benefit in interest rate will be incremental. That’s a lot of “if’s” to hold onto for a hope of small gains.

The downside risk is far greater than the upside potential for rates to improve. If QE2 is not well received, the bond market would sell off and mortgage rates would suffer. History shows us this can happen much more quickly than any improvement.

Fairfax, VA –  This summer has brought some of the best home loan rates on record. If you’ve been wondering whether you could benefit from today’s low rate environment, read on. There are two programs that may help you.

What about My Home’s Value?
Not only were home loan rates at their lowest in August, we also learned last month that home prices continued to climb nationally since reaching a bottom in the first quarter of 2009. According to the S&P/Case-Schiller Index, home prices in both their 10 and 20 cities composite have increased 16 straight months.

While it’s great news that values have risen over the last year, there is concern that the increases are decelerating and that price declines are on the horizon in 2011.

So, even though your property may not be worth what it was at the peak of the market, the odds are great that its value has increased since bottoming out last year. That increase could be enough to help you get that loan program and rate you want. For some though, even with that increase, your home’s value may still be lower than what you thought you needed to get a new loan.

Why Wait?
Why have some people waited to or chosen not to refinance? One reason is the value of their home. As home values have fallen in the past few years, many homeowners believe that obtaining new financing, especially without substantial new costs or private mortgage insurance (PMI), is impossible. For a lot of homeowners though, this is not the case.

FHA Streamline Refinance:
If the existing home loan you have is one that was guaranteed by the FHA, you may be able to refinance without an appraisal, even if the value of your home is less than what you currently owe on your loan.

With an FHA Streamline Refinance, homeowners can refinance their existing FHA loan without an appraisal and in many cases, also with reduced documentation requirements. This can bring a lot of relief to someone’s interest rate and mortgage payment without much fuss.

In doing an FHA Streamline Refinance without an appraisal, you can refinance your loan but you may have to bring some money to the closing table. Closing costs may not be added to your existing loan when an appraisal is not required. In a lot of situations, the amount required will be similar to a normal monthly mortgage payment.

If you do not have the funds available to cover all the costs, you may be able to work with your lender to have them cover a portion of or all of your closing costs by choosing an interest rate that is a little higher than market rate.

You may want to move quickly though. In October, HUD is changing the rules in upfront and monthly mortgage insurance that could increase your payment. On a $200,000 loan, the difference in monthly payment based on the changes could increase by $75.

Home Affordable Refinance:
If your loan is owned by either Freddie Mac or Fannie Mae, you may be able to refinance, even if the new loan amount is as high as 125% of the present value of your home. The 125% option may not be available by your lender but financing to 105% of the value of the home is widely available.

If the mortgage you have today does not have mortgage insurance, you could be eligible for a new loan without mortgage insurance, even though the new loan doesn’t have a 20% equity position. This is great news!

To find out if your loan is owned by either Freddie Mac or Fannie Mae, go to http://makinghomeaffordable.gov

Once in a Lifetime Opportunity
Home loan rates have never been lower. Long-term interest rates have never been lower.

With rates as low as they are today, many options exist. Depending on your needs, opportunity exists to either save a lot of money in your monthly payment, over the life of your loan, or both. Many people have recently chosen to refinance into shorter terms – 10, 15, or 20 years – in some cases bringing a large principal reduction payment to closing to get the loan they want.

Whatever your personal situation is, the best thing you can do is to investigate your options. It has been reported that the average rate in effect for all mortgages today exceeds 6.00%. If you or someone you know is currently in this situation, you owe it to yourself to see how you can save today.