Forecasting What May Be Ahead for Home Loan Rates

Fairfax, VA – The good news–despite what the Mayan calendar may say–is that the world probably won’t be coming to an end in 2012. But like 2011, this coming year may bring some significant challenges here in the US and around the world. Read on to learn more about what could be ahead for home loan rates.

First, let’s take a minute to recap 2011. While home loan rates finished the year at historically low levels, the housing market did not see a major improvement in the second half of the year as some experts expected. The labor market did make some modest improvements, but it is still persistently weak and this is one area of the economy in particular that we need to see consistent improvement in to help our long-term economic outlook.

Also weighing on consumer confidence and thus the economy in 2011 was the first downgrade of US Debt in history, thanks in part to our very divisive government body. Finally, the worsening and spreading debt crisis in Europe capped a year filled with financial and political uncertainty. The situation in Europe is the perfect place to begin a 2012 outlook.

Eurozone Debt Crisis
What may happen with the US economy and home loan rates in 2012–not to mention with inflation, the housing market, the job market, and even the Presidential election–may be dramatically influenced by how the Eurozone handles their debt crisis. In the simplest of terms, the issue is that like much of the developed economies around the world, Europe has way too much debt. And a lot of this debt sits on the books of the banking sector throughout the Eurozone.

In good economic times, banks could potentially “grow” their way out of their recapitalization problem by doing a lot of business and writing a bunch of loans. But that is not likely to happen with the Eurozone slipping into a recession in the first half of 2012.

Ultimately, Europe needs to provide a large financial backstop for their banks and sovereign debt in order to fix their problems longer-term. And this is something that Germany, who holds the cards in this negotiation, strongly opposes. Germany prefers to have each country shore up their own individual finances, act responsibly, and pay down their debt. Yet, Greece, Italy and other highly indebted countries have struggled to invoke tough austerity measures that would help them do so.

The situation in Europe is definitely a wild card headed into 2012. The bottom line is that as long as the uncertainty continues, the US Dollar and US Bonds should benefit, as investors will see our Bonds (including Mortgage Bonds, upon which home loan rates are based) as a safe haven for their money. This could help keep our home loan rates relatively low in 2012.

Inflation
One factor that we can’t ignore when it comes to home loan rates is inflation. Why? Inflation is the arch enemy of Bonds and home loan rates, because if inflation rises, investors in Bonds demand a higher yield to offset the lost buying power inflation imposes on a fixed payment. And as home loan rates are tied to Mortgage Bonds, this would mean home loan rates move higher. That’s why sometimes even hints or whispers that inflation is on the rise causes Bonds and home loan rates to worsen.

So what’s ahead for inflation in 2012? In the Fed’s Policy Statement from the December 13, 2011 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the Fed stated that inflation is moderating…which would be good news for home loan rates. However, it’s important to note that core consumer level inflation actually inched higher in 2011.

Last year, consumer inflation and the expectation of inflation rose as the Fed embarked on a second round of Quantitative Easing (QE2) in the fall of 2010, whereby they bought Mortgage Bonds to help boost the economy and the housing market. If inflation remains at current levels or pulls back a little, the Fed may just do another round of QE3 in the spring. Also paving the way for another round of QE is the change of guard at the Fed. Several hawkish (i.e., tough on inflation) voting members are being replaced by more dovish (i.e., softer on inflation) voting members in 2012.

The bottom line is that if the Fed does another round of QE, this could cause inflation to rise. And if inflation does rise in 2012, it could have a negative impact on home loan rates. However, if the uncertainty out of Europe continues to lead to a safe haven trade in our Bond markets–and remember, this helps Mortgage Bonds and therefore home loan rates–this could essentially balance out the negative impact inflation usually has on Bonds and home loan rates. Only time will tell whether inflation or the events in Europe have a bigger impact on the markets and home loan rates.

The Big Picture
In many ways, 2012 may feel a lot like 2011. Inflation and events in Europe will continue to play a big part in the direction home loan rates move in 2012. What’s more, history has shown that Bonds move higher (which means home loan rates move lower) in anticipation of QE, but then selloff once the official announcement is made…think “buy on the rumor and sell on the news.”

If that does happen, the first half of 2012 could be an especially great time to purchase or refinance a home. But even if the Fed does not move forward with QE3, we begin 2012 with home loan rates near historic lows, which already makes this year a great time to purchase or refinance a home. If you have any questions about how you can benefit from this situation, give me a call at
703-830-9808 or email me at jeff@lendingsolutions.net

Fairfax, VA – FHA lenders had reason for cheer and mirth at the end of last week. “In an effort to continue stabilizing home values and improve conditions in communities experiencing high foreclosure activity, Acting FHA Commissioner Carol Galante will extend FHA’s temporary waiver of the anti-flipping regulations.” With certain exceptions, FHA regulations prohibit insuring a mortgage on a home owned by the seller for less than 90 days, but this rule is waived through December 31, 2012, unless otherwise extended or withdrawn by FHA.  “All other terms of the existing Waiver will remain the same.  The Waiver contains strict conditions and guidelines to prevent the predatory practice of property flipping, in which properties are quickly resold at inflated prices to unsuspecting borrowers.  The Waiver continues to be limited to sales meeting the following conditions: All transactions must be arms-length, with no identity of interest between the buyer and seller or other parties participating in the sales transaction. In cases in which the sales price of the property is 20 percent or more above the seller’s acquisition cost, the Waiver will only apply if the lender meets specific conditions and documents the justification for the increase in value. The Waiver is limited to forward mortgages, and does not apply to the Home Equity Conversion Mortgage (HECM) for purchase program.

Effective Friday, November 18, FHA has raised loan limits to $729,750.

Fairfax, VA – You can check individual counties for limits using this link:

 FHA Loan Limits

Fannie & Freddie’s loan limits remain at $625,500!

FHA requires 3.5% down with a higher loan limit.

Conventional loans, 5% down with a lower loan limit.

Does this make sense to you?  I guess nothing makes sense these days but we think that Fannie and Freddie may very likely follow FHA.  Waiting for the President to sign.

 The new FHA limits are effective through 2013.

Fairfax, VA – When was the last government shutdown? 1995 was the year. What happened? It was very painful to get through, but no one panicked. And we shouldn’t panic this time. I can assure you 1st Commonwealth Bank of Virginia has prepared all of the loans in our pipeline and we preparing for a worst case scenario, so the disruption will be minimal. If a shutdown would occur, these would be the top six areas that can affect us during a government shutdown:  

FHA Case Numbers: For each FHA loan, we are required to order a FHA case number.
This number is generated before an appraisal can even be ordered. With a shutdown, we may not be able to order case numbers. Because of this, it is critical to let us know if there is a contract executed on any loan, so that our office can go ahead and order a case number without risking the loan being on hold during a shutdown. Note: with the new FHA guidelines, a contract must be executed before a case number can be ordered.

(The ability to close FHA loans is questionable, depending if HUD keeps its website running to obtain FHA case numbers and CAIVRS (During the November 1995 shutdown, case numbers could not be obtained, but this was prior to the internet and was a manual process). The shutdown in 1995 mainly caused a delay rather than a drop in FHA loan origination, but if lenders decide to stop accepting FHA applications, it could be a problem. I think we will see delays but not a complete shutdown of the FHA.)
 
4506 IRS Transcripts: Each loan requires the verification of at least one Federal tax return by the IRS to verify the financial numbers that each customer presents us on their tax returns. During a shutdown, this process would be delayed as the IRS wouldn’t be at work to verify the transcripts. (This might be a minimal delay, since the internet / phone fax is used to order tax transcripts.)

Verifying Employment (VOE) of a Government Employee: We are required to verify the employment of each customer. If the customer is a federal government employee, we might not be unable to verify his or her employment during a shutdown. (Again some VOE’s are ordered via the internet, we are not sure if there would be a delay in receiving VOE’s)

FEMA: Homes in a Flood Zone: Homes that are determined to be in a flood zone would not be able to close as flood insurance could not be obtained.

USDA: During a shutdown, the USDA office would be closed because they have government underwriters that insure behind the lender.  With a shutdown, we would see delays with all USDA loans.

VA: Like the FHA, the disruption is possible — but not absolute — during a shutdown. This would all depend on if they continued to allow their website to function. A disruption would cause delays in VA appraisals and the issuing of certificates of eligibility.  If the website was closed during a shutdown, we would see delays in all VA loans.

Fairfax, VA – When the property in question is an FHA flip. Seller has been on title for less than 90 days.

If the sales price is 20% or more above seller’s acquisition cost and the increase in value is due to improvements/renovation to the property: 

1. The appraiser is required to verify the repairs or work to the property in order to substantiate the increase in value.
 
2. The seller must supply a list of improvements made to the property and the appraiser adds the list to the appraisal along with comments to justify the increase.

3. Before and after pictures are welcome.

4. Although not required on FHA flips, most lenders will automatically order a second appraisal to help justify the value.

If the appraiser cannot warrant that legitimate work was done to the property to substantiate the increase in value:

1. Then a second appraisal will be required.
  
2. This part could cause issues: The lower of the two appraisals will be used for the appraised value.

3.  A second appraisal will be required.

If the increase in value is not due to any significant improvements:

1. The appraiser will be required to provide explanations for the increase in
property value.

2. The appraiser must provide sales comparables to support that value increase since the prior title transfer.

3. OR, if the appraiser cannot justify the increase in value, a second appraisal will be required.

4. The lower of the two appraisal values will be used for the appraised value.

Fairfax, VA – The start of summer is nearly here, which means things like baseball, hotdogs, and apple pie are on our minds. But that’s not all the arrival of summer means: 2011 is almost halfway over. That makes now the perfect time of year to make sure your home loan is working for you.

Here are four questions you should ask yourself about your mortgage…before the temperatures start turning colder again.

Question 1: How does my interest rate compare to what’s available today?

The economic realities of the past few years have taught people some valuable lessons. One of which is: It’s not what you make, it’s what you keep, that counts.

Think of it this way: If you discovered that someone was stealing from you, how quickly would you act to stop them from doing it again? Would you act today, in a week, a month, or not at all? The odds are you would act sooner rather than later.

So here’s a question for you to consider. Is your current loan stealing money from you? Could you benefit from refinancing and lowering your interest rate and/or monthly payments on your home loan? Let’s look at some numbers: On a $300,000 mortgage, decreasing your interest one percentage point saves you $3,000 in interest a year, or $250 a month. That’s right, $250 a month!

Today, many major corporations with millions, and in some cases billions, of dollars are taking advantage of these low rates. Shouldn’t you be, too? Perhaps this is one of those times when following the herd isn’t such a bad idea.

Question 2: Do I have the right loan for my personal situation?

Are you one of those people who is planning to stay in your home for the rest of your life? Have you packed and unpacked dozens of boxes, hoping to never hear the whisk of packing tape again? Or, are you excited about downsizing in a few years, once your kids head off to college? Or maybe you’re considering relocating for a career opportunity?

Whatever your situation, the key point to remember is that the length of time you are planning to stay in your home is a big factor in determining whether you have the right loan. For example, if you know you are planning to move in five years, a seven-year adjustable rate mortgage may be a great option for you since it typically offers lower rates than a 30 year fixed loan and since you plan to move before the rate adjusts at the seven-year mark.

Pay attention and be aware as situations arise in your life. They may just help you save money in both the short and long-term.

Question 3: Is my mortgage well integrated into my financial plan?

Before you get excited that you have a low mortgage rate or owe very little to the bank on your mortgage, ask yourself the following questions:
Do I maximize contributions to my retirement plan at work?
Do I carry balances on high interest non-tax-deductible consumer debt?
Do I have a sufficient liquid rainy day fund established?
Remember: Your mortgage is just one element of your financial plan. And while securing a low rate or owing little on your mortgage are great achievements, neither will make you financially secure if you don’t also have a plan in place for retirement or have liquid cash on hand to cover an emergency. And, if you’re making large credit card payments every month–paying more in the long-term in interest on these payments than if you were able to use some of your equity to pay off your debt–than your mortgage is standing on its own, instead of helping you increase your overall worth.

Question 4: Should I pre-pay my mortgage?

Would you rather be house rich and cash poor? Or house poor and cash rich in this current economic environment? Here’s some information to consider.

Home equity accumulates in four ways: the money committed in the original down-payment; any appreciation in the local housing market over time; physical improvements or renovations; and, of course, principal payments on the mortgage itself. While seemingly desirable on its face, this accumulation of wealth in the home has three consequences that you should keep in mind.

First, the cash in your home is “buried.” Not only is it unavailable in the event of a family emergency, it is vulnerable to loss due to periodic downturns in housing values, fire, or natural disasters such as hurricanes (insurance, where available, may not cover the full market value of your home). Perhaps more critical, cash trapped in property is earning zero interest, year after year. No prudent consumer would put money into a savings account or investment plan that yields no rate of return, but many homeowners do exactly that without a second thought when it comes to their mortgage.

The Bottom Line

Everyone’s situation is different and the only right answer is the one that is right for your situation. If you’d like to see how you can make your mortgage work better for you, contact me at 703-830-9808

FHA Refinance Changes

Fairfax, Virginia: With Mortgagee Letter 11-11, FHA announces changes to refinance transactions. This ML provides guidance on the changes as well as clarification on existing refinance guides and it will be worthwhile to read this ML in its entirety as a refresher.

Here are the 8 things you need to know about these clarifications and changes:

1. Borrower must be current on their mortgage for the month of closing AND the month prior to closing (The payment due the month of closing CAN be included in the payoff).

2. Second liens must be subordinated to the new FHA first in their entirety.

3. For all case numbers on investment property refinances assigned on or after April 15^th, 2011, the borrower must have occupied the subject property for the last 12 months to qualify for maximum streamline financing; if less than 12 months, a full credit-qualifying qualifying regular refinance is required with a maximum LTV of 85%.

4. Effective no later than April 15^th, 2011, the following net tangible benefit scenarios must exist on all streamline refinances in Fairfax, Virginia, Vienna, Virginia and the surrounding northern Virginia area.  A. The total of the new P&I and MI portion of the payment must decrease by at least 5% OR B. Refinancing from an ARM to a fixed product (See chart in ML).

5. Effective no later than April 15^th, 2011, lenders may now use the short Uniform Residential Loan Application (URLA) (standard loan application) for non-credit qualifying streamline refinances ONLY.

6. Effective no later than April 15^th, 2011, lenders no longer have to certify (verify) employment and income on streamline refinances.

7. TOTAL Scorecard (FHA underwriting system) must not be used for streamline refinances

8. Borrowers or Lenders CANNOT add closing costs, discount points, prepaids or other costs to the loan balance on non-credit-qualifying streamline refinances.  Lenders CAN add closing costs and prepaids (not discount points) ONLY through a full-credit-qualifying streamline WITH an appraisal. In other words, if you want to roll in closing costs, you must provide all income and credit documents to your loan officer.

An Affordable Mortgage for Underserved Markets

MyCommunityMortgage® (MCM) is a conventional, community lending mortgage that offers underwriting flexibilities to qualified borrowers who meet specific income criteria or properties that meet geographic location eligibility criteria (FannieNeighbors®).

MCM also permits additional eligibility-based options: Community Solutions™ for public safety, education, military and health care professionals, and Community HomeChoice™ for individuals with disabilities.

Key Features

• Low mortgage insurance (with no additional loan-level price adjustment [Loan Level Pricing Adjustment (LLPA])
• 18% mortgage insurance coverage for 97% LOAN TO VALUE – LTV. LTV is the reverse of equity. 97% is the same as 3% equity or 3% down payment.
• 6-16% coverage for other LOAN TO VALUEs above 80%
• 40-year term mortgages
• LOAN TO VALUEs to 97% for one-unit properties (LOAN TO VALUEs up to 95% for manually underwritten loans)
• Available for two- to four-unit owner-occupied properties (LOAN TO VALUE up to 95% – 5% down payment)
• Flexibility on credit histories, nontraditional credit accepted (LOAN TO VALUE up to 95% – 5% down payment)

Fairfax, VA –  This summer has brought some of the best home loan rates on record. If you’ve been wondering whether you could benefit from today’s low rate environment, read on. There are two programs that may help you.

What about My Home’s Value?
Not only were home loan rates at their lowest in August, we also learned last month that home prices continued to climb nationally since reaching a bottom in the first quarter of 2009. According to the S&P/Case-Schiller Index, home prices in both their 10 and 20 cities composite have increased 16 straight months.

While it’s great news that values have risen over the last year, there is concern that the increases are decelerating and that price declines are on the horizon in 2011.

So, even though your property may not be worth what it was at the peak of the market, the odds are great that its value has increased since bottoming out last year. That increase could be enough to help you get that loan program and rate you want. For some though, even with that increase, your home’s value may still be lower than what you thought you needed to get a new loan.

Why Wait?
Why have some people waited to or chosen not to refinance? One reason is the value of their home. As home values have fallen in the past few years, many homeowners believe that obtaining new financing, especially without substantial new costs or private mortgage insurance (PMI), is impossible. For a lot of homeowners though, this is not the case.

FHA Streamline Refinance:
If the existing home loan you have is one that was guaranteed by the FHA, you may be able to refinance without an appraisal, even if the value of your home is less than what you currently owe on your loan.

With an FHA Streamline Refinance, homeowners can refinance their existing FHA loan without an appraisal and in many cases, also with reduced documentation requirements. This can bring a lot of relief to someone’s interest rate and mortgage payment without much fuss.

In doing an FHA Streamline Refinance without an appraisal, you can refinance your loan but you may have to bring some money to the closing table. Closing costs may not be added to your existing loan when an appraisal is not required. In a lot of situations, the amount required will be similar to a normal monthly mortgage payment.

If you do not have the funds available to cover all the costs, you may be able to work with your lender to have them cover a portion of or all of your closing costs by choosing an interest rate that is a little higher than market rate.

You may want to move quickly though. In October, HUD is changing the rules in upfront and monthly mortgage insurance that could increase your payment. On a $200,000 loan, the difference in monthly payment based on the changes could increase by $75.

Home Affordable Refinance:
If your loan is owned by either Freddie Mac or Fannie Mae, you may be able to refinance, even if the new loan amount is as high as 125% of the present value of your home. The 125% option may not be available by your lender but financing to 105% of the value of the home is widely available.

If the mortgage you have today does not have mortgage insurance, you could be eligible for a new loan without mortgage insurance, even though the new loan doesn’t have a 20% equity position. This is great news!

To find out if your loan is owned by either Freddie Mac or Fannie Mae, go to http://makinghomeaffordable.gov

Once in a Lifetime Opportunity
Home loan rates have never been lower. Long-term interest rates have never been lower.

With rates as low as they are today, many options exist. Depending on your needs, opportunity exists to either save a lot of money in your monthly payment, over the life of your loan, or both. Many people have recently chosen to refinance into shorter terms – 10, 15, or 20 years – in some cases bringing a large principal reduction payment to closing to get the loan they want.

Whatever your personal situation is, the best thing you can do is to investigate your options. It has been reported that the average rate in effect for all mortgages today exceeds 6.00%. If you or someone you know is currently in this situation, you owe it to yourself to see how you can save today.