The Impact of the Job Market on the Housing Market

Being unemployed, under-employed, or afraid of losing a job is never easy. One of the first things many people do in these situations is batten down the hatches and minimize their spending. Certainly, the last thing on their minds is making a major purchase like a house. It’s just not a commitment that most people are willing to make when they lack confidence in their financial stability.

Although such decisions are made based on an individual’s job prospects, they have a ripple effect that impacts the broader economy, including the housing industry. Here are three key points that shed light on specific ways that the labor market influences the housing market.

Home Prices: A more secure employment market can help home prices stabilize, as fewer people are at risk of losing their homes to foreclosure. In addition, improvements in the labor market often open the door for more first-time homebuyers to join the ranks of homeowners. This can eventually help home prices improve.

Home Size: If you are running a business and need to hire someone, during a good healthy labor market you may need to entice your top pick. How will you do that? Perhaps by paying them a competitive salary. And when someone is paid a good salary, one of the things they often think about doing is purchasing a larger home.

Home Location: When the labor market is thriving, an employer may even have to lure in people who live outside the local area to take a job. This is one of the reasons housing markets are so localized. One state, city, or community might have a much better job market than a neighboring one. That’s why it’s very important to understand the labor
situation in your own state and city in order to really get a feel for the health of the housing market there.

The bottom line to remember in 2012 is that all real estate markets are local…and that means that there can be enormous variations across the country. In areas where employment is struggling, the housing market may continue to struggle as well. But employment is improving in many parts of the country, which also means the housing market in those areas will follow suit.

If you have any questions about your situation or the housing market in the area where you live, contact me if I can be of any help.

Fairfax, VA

CPI, PPI, PCE…sounds like a nice bowl of alphabet soup. But did you know that what lies behind these letters impacts not only YOU every single day…it also bears a very heavy influence on the direction of home loan rates? So pull up a chair, grab a spoon, and let’s dig in to learn more.

First, let’s break down what these letters mean. CPI stands for the “Consumer Price Index,” and just like it sounds, it is a measure of prices that consumers are paying for goods and services here in the United States. PPI stands for the “Producer Price Index,” which is a measure of the prices that manufacturers and producers are paying to create these goods and services. PCE stands for “Personal Consumption Expenditures,” which is another measure of how much we as consumers are paying for all the items we purchase.

Each of these readings is very different–but they all serve to measure inflation, which is the relative increase in the prices for goods and services…or a decline in the purchasing price of a dollar.

Consumer Price Index
CPI was first initiated during World War I. This was a time when prices were increasing very rapidly, so employers needed to develop a system to adjust wages along with the increasing cost of living associated with higher costs of goods and services. The Bureau of Labor Statistics determined a basic “basket of goods” that an average person might buy on a regular basis, and then began monitoring the prices of items in this basket on a monthly basis, for cities across the US. As spending habits changed over the years, the basket of goods and areas surveyed changed–but the basic philosophy has remained the same.

What does an average CPI “basket” look like? Here’s a sample. How does it compare with your monthly shopping cart?

Food and Beverages (breakfast cereal, milk, coffee, chicken, wine, full service meals, snacks)
Housing (rent of primary residence, owners’ equivalent rent, fuel oil, bedroom furniture)
Apparel (men’s shirts and sweaters, women’s dresses, jewelry)
Transportation (new vehicles, airline fares, gasoline, motor vehicle insurance)
Medical Care (prescription drugs and medical supplies, physicians’ services, eyeglasses and eye care, hospital services)
Recreation (televisions, toys, pets and pet products, sports equipment, admissions)
Education and Communication (college tuition, postage, telephone services, computer software and accessories)
Other Goods and Services (tobacco and smoking products, haircuts and other personal services, funeral expenses)
So how is this data collected? Every month, researchers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics visit or call thousands of stores and offices to obtain pricing information, ultimately tracking and pricing about 80,000 items per month. The numbers are reported on a monthly basis, using the time period for the years 1982-1984 as a baseline, assigning the basket a level of 100. So if the new pricing levels come in at 189, you could make the connection that something that cost $100 in 1982-1984 might now cost $189. On a monthly basis, however, what is reported is the percentage increase (or decrease) from the prior month, and then also the percentage change from last year.

For an interesting – and somewhat sobering – look at how the buying power of your dollar has changed over the years, try out this inflation calculator from the Bureau of Labor Statistics:

Producer Price Index
The Producer Price Index (PPI) is somewhat different than the Consumer Price Index (CPI), as it measures the costs that a producer or wholesaler pays for the items they need to create goods and services. This can often give a foreshadowing of potential increases to consumer prices…but not always. In some cases, the producer is unable to pass along their increased costs, and simply has to take a lower profit margin on the item in question. Similarly to CPI, the data for PPI is released in a percentage format, indicating the increase or decrease in prices paid by the producer relative to last month and also last year.

It’s fascinating to watch these particular economic reports get released each month, as the Producer Price Index is always released just a few days before the Consumer Price Index, and it’s always a subject of much speculation to see if the increases in producer costs have been passed on to consumers…or not.

Personal Consumption Expenditures
PCE is somewhat similar to CPI, as it measures price changes in consumer goods and services. But there is one primary difference. Remember the “basket of goods” described in the CPI? PCE takes a slightly different look at this basket, as it presumes that consumers are smart enough not to keep buying a particular item that has gone up in price compared to something else similar.

For example, if oranges become expensive due to a crop freeze, a savvy consumer might decide to buy a different kind of fruit or juice in the meantime. Where CPI leaves that expensive item in their fixed basket of goods, PCE takes smart shopping into consideration. This is why many people speculate that the Federal Reserve actually places more weight on PCE, as it may more accurately depict a consumer’s true behavior and spending habits.

The Impact on Home Loan Rates
Imagine for a moment that you are going to lend your very own money to someone to buy a house. So you go through all the paces to determine this person is a good credit risk, you do the loan, and you start receiving $1,500 per month as your regular payment. You then of course take that $1,500 and start loading up your shopping cart with the goods and services you need on a monthly basis…food, clothing, medicine, gas, etc.

But over time, you notice something happening. Every month, you are getting slightly less in your cart than you did the month before, for that same $1,500 you are spending. Why? Because costs are on the rise–that’s inflation.

Now imagine that you are once again going to lend your very own money to another person to buy a house. You go through all the paces once again, and determine that the person is a good credit risk. You want the same shopping cart full of “stuff” that you got last time in return for doing the loan, but this time you realize that you can no longer get that same cart full with $1,500. Due to inflation, you now need $1,700 to buy those same goods and services.

So what does this mean for the interest rate you will charge this second person? It means you will need to charge a higher interest rate to compensate you for the ongoing impact of inflation. And that is why home loan rates change when there is a fear of inflation in the air, as lenders need to offset the impact of inflation over the years, which will erode the value of the dollars they are receiving over time. And that’s also why it makes sense to work with a smart home loan professional who can be watching these types of indicators and keeping you informed and advised.

Please call me if you have any questions, or if you are look to refinance or if you are purchasing a new home.

Fairfax, VA – When was the last government shutdown? 1995 was the year. What happened? It was very painful to get through, but no one panicked. And we shouldn’t panic this time. I can assure you 1st Commonwealth Bank of Virginia has prepared all of the loans in our pipeline and we preparing for a worst case scenario, so the disruption will be minimal. If a shutdown would occur, these would be the top six areas that can affect us during a government shutdown:  

FHA Case Numbers: For each FHA loan, we are required to order a FHA case number.
This number is generated before an appraisal can even be ordered. With a shutdown, we may not be able to order case numbers. Because of this, it is critical to let us know if there is a contract executed on any loan, so that our office can go ahead and order a case number without risking the loan being on hold during a shutdown. Note: with the new FHA guidelines, a contract must be executed before a case number can be ordered.

(The ability to close FHA loans is questionable, depending if HUD keeps its website running to obtain FHA case numbers and CAIVRS (During the November 1995 shutdown, case numbers could not be obtained, but this was prior to the internet and was a manual process). The shutdown in 1995 mainly caused a delay rather than a drop in FHA loan origination, but if lenders decide to stop accepting FHA applications, it could be a problem. I think we will see delays but not a complete shutdown of the FHA.)
 
4506 IRS Transcripts: Each loan requires the verification of at least one Federal tax return by the IRS to verify the financial numbers that each customer presents us on their tax returns. During a shutdown, this process would be delayed as the IRS wouldn’t be at work to verify the transcripts. (This might be a minimal delay, since the internet / phone fax is used to order tax transcripts.)

Verifying Employment (VOE) of a Government Employee: We are required to verify the employment of each customer. If the customer is a federal government employee, we might not be unable to verify his or her employment during a shutdown. (Again some VOE’s are ordered via the internet, we are not sure if there would be a delay in receiving VOE’s)

FEMA: Homes in a Flood Zone: Homes that are determined to be in a flood zone would not be able to close as flood insurance could not be obtained.

USDA: During a shutdown, the USDA office would be closed because they have government underwriters that insure behind the lender.  With a shutdown, we would see delays with all USDA loans.

VA: Like the FHA, the disruption is possible — but not absolute — during a shutdown. This would all depend on if they continued to allow their website to function. A disruption would cause delays in VA appraisals and the issuing of certificates of eligibility.  If the website was closed during a shutdown, we would see delays in all VA loans.

Fairfax, VA – The start of summer is nearly here, which means things like baseball, hotdogs, and apple pie are on our minds. But that’s not all the arrival of summer means: 2011 is almost halfway over. That makes now the perfect time of year to make sure your home loan is working for you.

Here are four questions you should ask yourself about your mortgage…before the temperatures start turning colder again.

Question 1: How does my interest rate compare to what’s available today?

The economic realities of the past few years have taught people some valuable lessons. One of which is: It’s not what you make, it’s what you keep, that counts.

Think of it this way: If you discovered that someone was stealing from you, how quickly would you act to stop them from doing it again? Would you act today, in a week, a month, or not at all? The odds are you would act sooner rather than later.

So here’s a question for you to consider. Is your current loan stealing money from you? Could you benefit from refinancing and lowering your interest rate and/or monthly payments on your home loan? Let’s look at some numbers: On a $300,000 mortgage, decreasing your interest one percentage point saves you $3,000 in interest a year, or $250 a month. That’s right, $250 a month!

Today, many major corporations with millions, and in some cases billions, of dollars are taking advantage of these low rates. Shouldn’t you be, too? Perhaps this is one of those times when following the herd isn’t such a bad idea.

Question 2: Do I have the right loan for my personal situation?

Are you one of those people who is planning to stay in your home for the rest of your life? Have you packed and unpacked dozens of boxes, hoping to never hear the whisk of packing tape again? Or, are you excited about downsizing in a few years, once your kids head off to college? Or maybe you’re considering relocating for a career opportunity?

Whatever your situation, the key point to remember is that the length of time you are planning to stay in your home is a big factor in determining whether you have the right loan. For example, if you know you are planning to move in five years, a seven-year adjustable rate mortgage may be a great option for you since it typically offers lower rates than a 30 year fixed loan and since you plan to move before the rate adjusts at the seven-year mark.

Pay attention and be aware as situations arise in your life. They may just help you save money in both the short and long-term.

Question 3: Is my mortgage well integrated into my financial plan?

Before you get excited that you have a low mortgage rate or owe very little to the bank on your mortgage, ask yourself the following questions:
Do I maximize contributions to my retirement plan at work?
Do I carry balances on high interest non-tax-deductible consumer debt?
Do I have a sufficient liquid rainy day fund established?
Remember: Your mortgage is just one element of your financial plan. And while securing a low rate or owing little on your mortgage are great achievements, neither will make you financially secure if you don’t also have a plan in place for retirement or have liquid cash on hand to cover an emergency. And, if you’re making large credit card payments every month–paying more in the long-term in interest on these payments than if you were able to use some of your equity to pay off your debt–than your mortgage is standing on its own, instead of helping you increase your overall worth.

Question 4: Should I pre-pay my mortgage?

Would you rather be house rich and cash poor? Or house poor and cash rich in this current economic environment? Here’s some information to consider.

Home equity accumulates in four ways: the money committed in the original down-payment; any appreciation in the local housing market over time; physical improvements or renovations; and, of course, principal payments on the mortgage itself. While seemingly desirable on its face, this accumulation of wealth in the home has three consequences that you should keep in mind.

First, the cash in your home is “buried.” Not only is it unavailable in the event of a family emergency, it is vulnerable to loss due to periodic downturns in housing values, fire, or natural disasters such as hurricanes (insurance, where available, may not cover the full market value of your home). Perhaps more critical, cash trapped in property is earning zero interest, year after year. No prudent consumer would put money into a savings account or investment plan that yields no rate of return, but many homeowners do exactly that without a second thought when it comes to their mortgage.

The Bottom Line

Everyone’s situation is different and the only right answer is the one that is right for your situation. If you’d like to see how you can make your mortgage work better for you, contact me at 703-830-9808

Globalization’s Impact on Home Loan Rates

Fairfax, VA – Today we live in a global economy, an interconnected world where goods and capital move freely at lightning speed across countries. The widely accepted view is that globalization not only benefits all countries across the world but lends itself towards the betterment of the economy as a whole.

As we have seen, globalization can also have a negative impact with a domino effect in times of turmoil and unrest. This impact affects the financial markets both in the U.S. and abroad.

Flight to Safety
When there is political unrest, which was sparked recently in Egypt and has spread like wildfire throughout the Middle East, global investors get nervous. Often they shed their risky assets like Stocks and flee to the safe haven of the U.S. Dollar and U.S. Bond market.

This geopolitical unrest can create a buying binge, which helps Bond prices improve. And when Bond prices improve, so do home loan rates. However, there are growing concerns that trump the disturbing news coming from the Middle East, which will be the guiding force of home loan rates in the times ahead. What might that be?

Inflation, Inflation, Inflation
Inflation is the arch enemy of Bonds and home loan rates, even if inflation is across the pond. The increase in global unrest, not just in Egypt but in other parts of the world as well, is mostly attributed to economic factors – primarily runaway inflation in commodities and food.

The People’s Bank of China has raised interest rates a couple of times, most recently by 0.25% in an effort to head off a continued rise in consumer prices in China. The culprits? Soaring food prices and higher raw material costs lead the pack.

China has also tightened lending standards by requiring banks to raise their capital reserve requirements. In their latest reporting, China’s inflation rose by 4.9% year over year. This was lower than their expectations, however it still marked their highest reading in a couple of years. China may have to tighten their belt some more.

Brazil is appearing on the scene with the hottest rates of inflation in six years. They are attributing this to a rise in food costs and increased bus fares. It is anticipated the Central Bank will raise the benchmark interest rate in March for a second straight time in an effort to contain the spike in inflation.

The British are grappling with inflation as well. Their year over year reading struck a hot 4%, which is twice the rate of the Central Bank’s target. The UK has yet to address this with rate hikes because their economy is in such bad shape that any hike would make matters worse.

Inflation is beginning to become a problem in Europe where it has risen to 2.4%. This is super hot and well above the European Central Bank’s (ECB) comfort zone of beneath 2%.

With an inflation problem in Europe, the ECB will eventually have to raise rates to fight it. When they do, the Euro will strengthen against the dollar, making European Bonds relatively more attractive than U.S. Bonds. This attraction will likely put a damper on U.S. Bond purchases, and could also cause home loan rates to rise.

Many of these countries within Europe have a high number of union workers. They could very well demand pay increases to offset the higher cost of living resulting from inflation. This would exacerbate matters.

As we see signs of inflation around the world, the U.S. isn’t immune. With the second round of Quantitative Easing, known as QE2, the Federal Reserve’s stated goal is to boost Stock prices, create inflation, and lower the unemployment rate. These are all unfriendly to Bonds and could also cause home loan rates to move higher. As the old trading saying goes, “Don’t Fight the Fed.” It’s a bit like the Golden Rule, “He with the gold, rules.” If the Fed wants to accomplish these goals at the expense of Bonds, they probably will.

Some Good News
Despite inflation rising around the world, the global economy will continue to recover and growth will continue to expand. Consumer confidence has picked up, hitting the highest level since February 2008. With continued confidence as the economy picks up speed, housing may begin to show signs of improvement as well.

These are very interesting times. Historically speaking, rates are still extremely attractive and remain close to the historic lows…but for how long? Overall, as a percentage of total income, the cost of owning a home is less expensive that it’s been at any time since 1963. So if you or someone you know has been thinking about purchasing or refinancing a home, now is the time to get started!

Fairfax, VA –  This summer has brought some of the best home loan rates on record. If you’ve been wondering whether you could benefit from today’s low rate environment, read on. There are two programs that may help you.

What about My Home’s Value?
Not only were home loan rates at their lowest in August, we also learned last month that home prices continued to climb nationally since reaching a bottom in the first quarter of 2009. According to the S&P/Case-Schiller Index, home prices in both their 10 and 20 cities composite have increased 16 straight months.

While it’s great news that values have risen over the last year, there is concern that the increases are decelerating and that price declines are on the horizon in 2011.

So, even though your property may not be worth what it was at the peak of the market, the odds are great that its value has increased since bottoming out last year. That increase could be enough to help you get that loan program and rate you want. For some though, even with that increase, your home’s value may still be lower than what you thought you needed to get a new loan.

Why Wait?
Why have some people waited to or chosen not to refinance? One reason is the value of their home. As home values have fallen in the past few years, many homeowners believe that obtaining new financing, especially without substantial new costs or private mortgage insurance (PMI), is impossible. For a lot of homeowners though, this is not the case.

FHA Streamline Refinance:
If the existing home loan you have is one that was guaranteed by the FHA, you may be able to refinance without an appraisal, even if the value of your home is less than what you currently owe on your loan.

With an FHA Streamline Refinance, homeowners can refinance their existing FHA loan without an appraisal and in many cases, also with reduced documentation requirements. This can bring a lot of relief to someone’s interest rate and mortgage payment without much fuss.

In doing an FHA Streamline Refinance without an appraisal, you can refinance your loan but you may have to bring some money to the closing table. Closing costs may not be added to your existing loan when an appraisal is not required. In a lot of situations, the amount required will be similar to a normal monthly mortgage payment.

If you do not have the funds available to cover all the costs, you may be able to work with your lender to have them cover a portion of or all of your closing costs by choosing an interest rate that is a little higher than market rate.

You may want to move quickly though. In October, HUD is changing the rules in upfront and monthly mortgage insurance that could increase your payment. On a $200,000 loan, the difference in monthly payment based on the changes could increase by $75.

Home Affordable Refinance:
If your loan is owned by either Freddie Mac or Fannie Mae, you may be able to refinance, even if the new loan amount is as high as 125% of the present value of your home. The 125% option may not be available by your lender but financing to 105% of the value of the home is widely available.

If the mortgage you have today does not have mortgage insurance, you could be eligible for a new loan without mortgage insurance, even though the new loan doesn’t have a 20% equity position. This is great news!

To find out if your loan is owned by either Freddie Mac or Fannie Mae, go to http://makinghomeaffordable.gov

Once in a Lifetime Opportunity
Home loan rates have never been lower. Long-term interest rates have never been lower.

With rates as low as they are today, many options exist. Depending on your needs, opportunity exists to either save a lot of money in your monthly payment, over the life of your loan, or both. Many people have recently chosen to refinance into shorter terms – 10, 15, or 20 years – in some cases bringing a large principal reduction payment to closing to get the loan they want.

Whatever your personal situation is, the best thing you can do is to investigate your options. It has been reported that the average rate in effect for all mortgages today exceeds 6.00%. If you or someone you know is currently in this situation, you owe it to yourself to see how you can save today.

Fairfax-VA.  The ML 2010-24 is guidance for Combined Loan To Value (CLTV) refinance transactions – only. The new policy and guidelines are more restrictive than the old FHA policies guidelines.  In the past FHA policies did not have a restriction on minimum equity limits (LTV and CLTV in loan talk), but Wall Street and the big banks added their own restrictions that allowed an FHA loan to be underwater by only 25% of the appraised value.  Essentially in the past,  FHA didn’t care how far underwater a borrower was, the loan request was able to be approved if the loan circumstances met FHA guidelines. But the companies that funded FHA loans do care how much equity a homeowner has. In the end,  investors (Wall Street and the big banks) did and do care how far a homeowner is underwater so they set the max at 125% of the home’s value as the limit.  Just as in the past, he who has the gold sets the rules. Wall Street and the big banks have the money and clout, so they set the rules to try and limit their exposure to potentially bad loans which could result in large losses.

An explanation of three different FHA programs is below:

Homeowners are now restricted to a 97.75% LTV (2.25% remaining equity) on rate and term refinance, 85% LTV (15% remaining equity) on cash out refinance and 125% CLTV (underwater by 25%, so ZERO equity) for an FHA streamline refinance.  The refinance for borrowers in negative equity positions (underwater) is only available if the current servicer is willing to give up 10% of the current loan balance and that loan must not be a FHA insured plus many other restrictions.  The LTV limit is 97.75% and the CLTV limit is 115%, you should not get excited about this product since it will be more difficult than getting a short sale approved.  This is based on the ML2010-24: Combined Loan-to-Value Requirements for Refinance Transactions (8/6/10).

Fairfax, VA – With the increased role FHA has taken in the lending world since 2007, FHA has experienced an increase of foreclosures which caused FHA to tighten lending guidelines, increase down payment requirements and institute minimum credit score requirements to qualify for an FHA loan.  Here are some changes that have been made or are on the horizon.

Credit Scores – A minimum credit score of 500 is required.  Borrowers with credit scores below 580 would have to put at least a 10% down payment on the property.  Although FHA has minimum scores of 500 and 580, most lenders have score requirements of at least 620 or higher.

Underwriting – Underwriting is a tool lenders use to document information about the property (value) and the borrower (income, credit score, debt).  The underwriting process is used to assess whether the borrower is likely to repay the loan.  Most lenders today use an automated underwriting system (LP - Freddie Mac or DO/DU – Fannie Mae) to get approval of the loan.   If the automated system flags the loan, a more in-depth manual underwriting procedure would take place to ensure the borrower qualifies for the loan.  The underwriter could require additional funds for cash reserves equal to one mortgage payment or explanations or documentation to further clarify certain aspects of loan file. 

Cash-out Refinancing – Is when a homeowner removes equity from the home in the form of a higher loan amount than before the refinance.  Currently a borrower can take up to 85% of the home’s current value.  Previously, this amount was 95% of the home value.  In order to be eligible for a cash-out, you must have excellent credit and have at least 15%  equity after the refinance. (Example: Value $100,000, Owe: $50,000, Equity available is $35,000 less any applicable closing costs.

Seller Concessions – This is a big one.  A seller concession is an amount that is negotiated in the sales contract that the seller will pay towards the buyers closing costs.  The FHA wants to slash allowable seller concessions in half, from 6% to 3%.  Some buyers want to roll in their closing costs, appraisals, etc. into the loan amount. This is not allowed with FHA loans. But this doesn’t ban concessions of over 3%.  What the new guidelines require is a dollar for dollar reduction in the home’s sale price and reduce the amount of the allowable loan.

Short Refinancing – If a borrower has no equity in their home,  they would be allowed to refinance into an FHA loan.  This is on the first loan only.  If there is a second mortgage, the two loans combined cannot exceed the current value of the home by more than 15% once the first loan is refinanced. Not every lender will allow a short refinance since the current service could be losing money by reducing the loan amount.

Interest rates have rallied and improved dramatically on the heels of the recent European debt concerns…and what is most important is that due to the highly unusual set of circumstances that exist in the market, those who are acting quickly are saving.

 In fact, Freddie Mac reported last week that rates have met either all-time lows or 2010 lows. Bottom line, they are “smokin’ hot” right now – but won’t be for long.

Regardless of whether people want to convert their loan to a 15-Year fixed to potentially save over $100,000 in payments over the term…or drop their payment several hundred dollars a month, people are acting now!

However – one thing you have to know…rates are incredibly volatile and are not likely to hold these levels. We might only have a couple of days to lock people in at the best rates they will ever see.

I would love to look into your situation and see just what we can do to put some money back in your pocket. I never thought I would see rates this low across the board – so don’t miss this chance.

Home sales and home prices continue to improve. Monday, the NAR released information that shows strength in housing. If you are in the market to buy a home, act now before monthly payments increase as both prices and rates move higher.

Or, if you are looking to refinance and could not last year because of home values…you just might be able to now. Call me!